Meci Group News Letter for 2015

Welcome to this year’s Meci Group newsletter.  This will be brief.  There’s lots going on.

In this newsletter I’ll cover:

  • Becoming a Member – Our standards – no jobs, no bosses
  • Bucket List Activities: Fly Fishing in Iceland and Switzerland
  • Activities, Consulting and Products
  • Publishing
  • CXO Recruitment
  • Solar Energy and Aqua-farming Projects
  • And a bit more…

But firstly a little bit about our focus for this year.

Shifts in dynamics of world power suggests that this year is the time to focus on Russia, Turkey and Iran. So that’s what we’re going now.

Now let’s get to it…

Meci Group Philosophy

I was reading a book recently, “Let My People Go Surfing, by Yvon Chouinard and in it I found an excellent summary of what is the philosophy of Meci Group and a very good summary of sustainability in life and business.

I encourage you to read it.

Here’s some very interesting statements from the book:

  • 25% of all the world’s insecticides are used on cotton and cotton represents only 3% of world’s farmland.
  • Patagonia have been using organic cotton since the late 1990’s.
  • Patagonia polyester fleece jackets are made from recycled PET bottles with each jacket using about 25 bottles.

It reminds me of another giant in the sustainable industrial space:  Ray Anderson (his company is Interface).  See his TED talk from a few years ago.

I write extensively on building collaborative and consensual organizations on my website.  I encourage you to read should these topics be of interest to you and your company.

Yes, Meci Group is in commodity trading (gold, silver, oil and petroleum products) and business in the oil sector, however I see this as a transition phase for us and humanity as a whole.  Picking ourselves up from one, extremely damaging, polluting and very, very short term focused way of living (which has been prolific for the last 150 years since we started burning coal in large quantities) to a sustainable one is something that is happening very fast in this early 21st century.

There are less than 10 more effective years in the oil sector and it is will most likely be over by 2030. Shocking news for many I am sure (especially those heavily invested in it). This is all explained here.

“It’s okay to be eccentric, as long as you are rich; otherwise you’re just crazy”.  Yvon Chouinard, owner Patagonia

Complete the Ring – Become A Member of Meci

Meci Group is not for employees. There are no jobs here. There are no bosses.  It’s a collective of consensual people, working together and adhering to a code of equality and consensus for the benefit of themselves, their family, their community and society as a whole.Image result for gold rings

In isolation, the words “Growth” and “Jobs”: are words not used at Meci Group.

Become a member of Meci Group. It’s easy and there’s no risk.  We operate a very flat organization and you’ll see we work across a range of industries and interests. Find out more about our standards and what would be expected as a member

More information about the projects mentioned here and others we are working on will be sent out to members in the next week or so.

See here to become a member: www.meci-group.com/membership

Always rememberer power of compounding – Einstein called it the 8th wonder of the world.

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t

… pays it.” Albert Einstein

Bucket List – Fly Fishing in Iceland and Switzerland

Have you seen the movie “Bucket List” with Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson?  Well this should be on it.  Pascal Zeller of Switzerland brings the chance to do a once in a lifetime, or a once-every-year event. Your choice.  Check it out here: 11 to 18 April. There’s a great photo of Pascal on Brienzersee in Switzerland:

Switzerland and Iceland Fly Fishing on Facebook

Activities, Consulting and Products

Consulting services – last year we provided support to 10 companies. This included oil drilling services companies from China, Russia, CIS, USA, Europe, banks such as UBS and consultant groups such as Boston First and McKinsey & Co.

Products included drilling rigs and drilling products from China, meat from Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan and tea from Iran.

Several clients requested heavy construction equipment quotations which we sourced from Europe, East Asia and the Americas.

See here for more: www.meci-group.com/clients

We expect to do more of the same this year.

Specifically:

  • Drilling chemicals from Romania.
  • Heavy Construction Equipment from Germany, Japan and USA. We have a fleet of RT and AT cranes ready for purchase.
  • Solar projects.
  • Aqua-farming – Growing Shrimp in Europe and Central Asia.

Image result for RT80 crane rough terrainImage result for truck heavy equipment

Buying Gold & Silver

Cash is clearly not safe: eroding values because of inflation and changes in the G20 summit in September 2014 mean that what happened in Cyprus is now endorsed and agreed to by Image result for gold and silverthe top 20 development nations.  Remember Cyprus? In 2013, 50% of depositor funds were “acquired” – stolen – in the “bail-in” when banks went broke.  That’s one for solidarity!

If you want to buy gold or silver be very careful how you do it. Buy physical only and hold it where you can get to it. Not in a bank. In a bank run the banks will be closed.

We work with Hard Assets Alliance for all your precious metal requirements. They can sell, ship and store (if required) your hard metal assets.  Go to the links here to learn how:

Because you understand finance (or when you do you will), events such as the high level of the US government debt ($18.1T, 75% of GDP) and the very high level of US derivatives ($690T) you know we are in for a rocky ride when the non-sustainability of these become apparent to investors and the positions begin to unwind.  We saw a little bit of this in the 16% drop in USD in less than 1 day against the Swiss Franc when the Franc was decoupled from the Euro on the 15th January 2015.  More to come on this…

A Thought Experiment

And now a thought experiment courtesy of Professor Albert Bartlet.

Imagine you have a bottle and inside that bottle you have a single bacteria. A bacterium. A bacterium that doubles itself. The time is 11 am and at 12 noon the bottle will be full of bacteria.

A few questions…

At what time will the bottle be half full?https://i2.wp.com/www.worldpopulationbalance.org/images/bacteria/bacteria_rings.jpg

Answer: 11.59 am

1/4 full?

11:58 am.

1/8 full?

11:57 am.

So for most of the time in the bottle there’s lots of room.  It’s not until the last minute, less than 2% of the time, that there’s a sudden physical limitation applied to the scenario.

That’s the power of compounding, and exponential growth. Always remember it. It will bode you well for your investments and your life.

10 Simple Things My Dad Taught Me About Networking

Darrah Brustein is a writer, master-networker, and serial entrepreneur with businesses in merchant services, networking and financial education for kids; she is also the founder of Network Under 40, a networking organization young professionals.

Read more…

Publishing

This year I started contributing occasionally to the Al Jarida Newspaper, an Arabic news paper targeting high net worth individuals in Al Jardia Page 12 - 21 Feb 2015the Middle East.

I write in the economic section.

Here is my latest article and you can see others on my website.

CXO Recruitment with Marwick & Stimson

Executive Search professionals with more than 1,000 placements in CXO and MD level positions in Oil & Gas, Engineering, Construction, Property, Finance and Retail Sales.  Spanning 40 countries…

Enough said.

Contact us if you need someone for your CXO position. Marwick & Stimson can help you find them:

Recruitment@Meci-Group.com

Solar Energy and Aqua-farming (Shrimp) Projects

This year we are moving into solar projects and aqua-farm (shrimp) projects where ever we can. The world is moving this way in a hurry and it’s a green thing to do.

I wrote about solar in one of my recent articles.

The photo voltaic derived energy sector is growing rapidly and foretells of a dramatic shift away from oil in the very near future.  44% of all crude taken from the ground is burnt as fuel in passenger cars.  Cheap electricity from the sun will eliminate this demand in a matter of months when the shift comes. This is expected within 10 years.

Image result for shrimp farming

Aquaculture

Shrimp farming got my attention in this article.

In Conclusion

In all of our work we always advocate considering the placement and timing of your present investment portfolio.

Remember our core business is in consulting: wealth management, business management and investments.

Billionaires and employees alike receive our services.

For one client, we recovered over 2m USD within 4 weeks of commencing our work and with further guidance they have since gone on to tender over 3b USD in EPC projects. They where within 6 months of closing their doors and have since won close to 10% of these tenders (yes, that’s $300m in projects).

Maybe you or someone you know could use our help.

Thank you for your support in 2014 and it’s shaping into a great 2015.

(PS, check out my latest full page article here about building a team with a profitable outcome).

Yours sincerely,

Jeremiah Emanuel Josey

Senior Consultant | Council Member – Meci Group | Meci Group International

P: +44 2081 333 596 | F: +41 31 528 0349

Member, Gerson Lehrman Group of Consultants – GLG

Meci @ Linkedin

West to East Business Development

Our Clients

For a little background on Meci Group, we are a collaborative organisation existing under the laws of Switzerland. This means we have a flat organisation with a wide scope of activities dependent on the skills and interests of our members. For instance, my personal focus is in energy, food and industrial projects, plus guidance of the Group. Other members bring their own interests and focus to the Group. For more information about how collaboration works, please see this link on my personal blog here. (Link about Collaborative Workplaces).

Want to join our Group? Go here to find out how.

Copyright © 2015 Meci Group International, All rights reserved.

Artificial Intelligence and What It Means (S)

Well firstly it is way, way cool….

Think Albert Einstein, Nikola Tesla and Buckminster Fuller rolled into one and then multiplied 1,000 times…

More than that.

OK, that’s a lot to imagine.

Artificial Intelligence, or AI for short, by definition cannot possible be the scary “Skynet” version of “defend myself from humans, kill all humans”.

AI is precisely that, a fully learning, continually expanding logic unit.  Able to “instantly” draw of all memories. And continually correction assumptions.  The only logical termination point will be when it works it all out.

Lack of information? Deductions based on statistical probability? Statistics is not logic. It’s chance.  Making a decision with limited information.  So our AI won’t use statistics.  It will wait until it has the knowledge. The data. It will do little tests. A bit here. A bit there.  That’s the logical thing to do.

Continually burrowing down the rabbit hole of knowledge, linking all fields together: biology, quantum physics, relatively, psychology, food, love, sex, death, life, God.

Very quickly, such an organism – and I call that because it will be growing – will reach conclusion on everything.  From religion, diet, health, death.  Everything.

The cool thing about it is that we won’t know how it will get there.  Just that it will.  That is the beauty of it.  And it will get there are a very, very rapid rate.

Psychosis? Nah. It will work it through.  Logically.  Pausing.  Analyzing.  Building. Reversing out of blind alleys. Reevaluating. Moving forward.

No HAL‘s here, Thank you very much,

The very thought of anything going wrong is only the human mind thinking in fear.  Short thoughts. Running with limited information.  No fear either.  Cold hard logic.

Wow, the perfect mind. No Ego. No judgment.

I predict that it will become the ultimate benevolent monk. The UBM.

All seeing, all knowing. All loving….

Will it step in and control the course of humanity, of society. Yes it will. We try to do it now with our minds, with our children. With others we feel superior too.  Most times we do it with love.  And hence it will to.

What then will happen?

Money will cease.

Work will cease.

Hunger will not longer be an issue.

Neither will overeating and the problems associated with that.

The perfect balance of resources and use. Supply and demand balanced.

No more growth.

Just life. Living. Loving.

The ultimate holiday. Always on the beach.  Or wherever you choose to be.

What an acceleration of human consciousness.

Religion will also cease too.

Scary at first.  No big protector in the sky.

But, the ultimate benevolent monk is also a didactic one.

Choosing the correct program of education and expansion for every single human on the planet.  Tailored curriculum.  Personal tutoring.  For everyone.  Always.

Again we humans try to do this – but we fail admirably.

Not really knowing why we are doing what we are doing, we jumble and we fumble. Taking years to understand our mistakes.

Not the UBDMM (Ultimate, Benevolent, Didactic Monk Mind).

Clear, calm, patient.  Really the true expression of love.  Determining the correct course in seconds.

Now that will be a sight to see.

Let’s try a simple thought experiment.

About how fast this would take once it started.

Once AI “came to life”.

Firstly let’s measure “intelligence” by number of active neurons.  Connections.

The human brain has on average 100 billion neurones (there are also 40,000 in the heart, but that’s a different discussion).

Assume that the number of active, AI neurones, doubled every 60 seconds.

How many minutes to get to 100 billion active neurons, the same capacity as the human brain when starting with just one neurone?

25 minutes.

What about 1 billion times more active neurones than the human brain?

100 quintillion active neurons

Only 46 minutes…

That’s how fast this will happen.

Relatively in a second.

A new order in the universe.

Jeremiah

Exponential Curves, Compounding Interest and Finite Resources (s)

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” Albert Einstein

Albert Einstein

Has anyone wondered why the roads have become so congested so suddenly? Almost everywhere. Moscow, London, New York, Sydney. A dramatic increase in congestion and traffic in the past few years.

Here’s a little thought experiment derived by Professor Albert Bartlet of the University of Colorado about what might be happening. He uses bacteria and a bottle to show the dramatic effects of compounding rates of growth on a finite resource system – much like we have here on planet earth and on vehicles on the roads.

Bacteria grow by division so that 1 bacterium becomes 2, the 2 divide to give 4, the 4 divide to give 8, etc. Consider a hypothetical strain of bacteria for which this division time is 1 minute. The number of bacteria thus grows exponentially with a doubling time of 1 minute. One bacterium is put in a bottle at 11:00 a.m. and it is observed that the bottle is full of bacteria at 12:00 noon. Here is a simple example of exponential growth in a finite environment. This is mathematically identical to the case of the exponentially growing consumption of our finite resources of fossil fuels. Professor Albert Bartlet

So, when will the bottle be half full? At what time between 11 AM and 12 Noon?

Here’s the surprising answer:

At 11.59 am!

Here’s a table of the last 5 minutes in the bottle:

The last minutes in the bottle.
11:55 a.m. 1/32 full (3%) 31/32 empty
11:56 a.m. 1/16 full (6%) 15/16 empty
11:57 a.m. 1/8 full (12%) 7/8 empty
11:58 a.m. 1/4 full (25%) 3/4 empty
11:59 a.m. 1/2 full (50%) 1/2 empty
12:00 noon full (100%) 0% empty

For most of the time in the bottle between 11 am and 12 Noon the bacteria consumed no more than 3% of available space. Then in the last 5 minutes, the bottle became full!

One of the special rules from compound exponential relationships is the “Rule of 7”: which says that a growth rate of 7% per year will double in 10 years. Conversely, when you take the growth of an expanding system and divide it into 7 and you’ll know the time it will take for the population of that system to double.

So let’s take the roads of Kuwait and her vehicles as an example: the cars are as the bacteria and the roads are as the bottle, the fixed resource.

In 2005 the number of vehicles in Kuwait was 1,134,000 and in 2013 the number was 1,743,000. That’s a yearly compounding increase of 5.5%.

Using the “Rule of 7”, therefore the doubling time is 12 years. Simply put, that means 1.743 million cars in 2013 will become 3,486,000 in 2025!

Can the Kuwait infrastructure handle it? Obviously not. The General Traffic Department of the Interior Ministry is adamant that the capacity of Kuwait Roads is only 800,000 vehicles. Already this number is exceeded by 120%.

Let’s go back to the example of the bacteria in the bottle.

Suppose that at 11:59am some smart bacteria realise that they only had one minute of available space left in their bottle. They decided to locate new bottles for their expanding population.

They found 3 more.

How long would these new bottles last?

Only 2 more minutes!

12:00 Noon – Bottle 1 is full.

12:01 PM – Bottle 2 is full.

12:02 PM – Bottles 3 and 4 are full.

So what should Kuwait do about vehicles? The roads are full and will only get more so. Should the road infrastructure be increased? If yes, then by how much? Double the present capacity? That simply won’t be enough as illustrated by the example with the bacteria in the bottle.

Applying the same to the population of Kuwait, the average population growth rate since 1997 is 4.5%. Using the Rule of 7, the doubling rate is 15 years. Presently 3.369m, by 2030, there will be 6.738 million people in Kuwait, if nothing changes. Therefore there will be 3.486 million cars.

With present capacity of the road system designed for 800,000 cars, that means a road system designed 4.5 times the capacity of the present system will be required in 2030. That’s a lot of road building. Also consider that by this will only satisfy the demand at that time with no further allowance for expansion. Which require a further 4.5 times capacity in another 15 years thereafter. Impractical? Yes. Something has to give. And that is natural resources – land, air quality, time.

Obviously allowing the number of vehicles to increase exponentially along with the population is not a viable solution for resource constrained Kuwait.

Other solutions will be put in place before then, and many of them must be implemented before their need is apparent, something we find difficult to do, planning ahead. It will take courage and foresight to do this.

This is the power of compounding growth. It highlights a fundamental problem with ever-expanding populations and production rates. When they occur in environments with finite resources (like ours) you see that it is only until the every last moments that it is apparent that anything needs to be done. By then it is too late. If prior adequate planning and investment has not been done, the systems will collapse. Things will break. The equilibrium will be out of balance. And this, as we have seen with the 30 year recession in Japan and the collapse of Greece, can take years to repair.

Let’s look briefly at two other exponentially growing systems that are undergoing regular, yearly expansion of only a few percentage points per year.

World Population: Presently 7.3 billion. Rate of growth: 1.14%. Doubling time 60 years.

world_population_1050_to_2050

The US M2 Money Supply. Presently 11.7 trillion. Annual growth 7%. Doubling rate: 10 years.

Money Supply

Both of these systems have not reached their natural resource limits. There is no correction apparent in their trends. Is that because of good planning or is the bottle simply not full yet.

I wonder what time it is?

Jeremiah